The three major indexes rose and fell, Apple rose 7% to a record closing high
* Major indices show mixed performance
* Apple hits new closing high
* EIA raises global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year
On Tuesday, June 11th (local time), the three major U.S. stock indices had a mixed performance. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both started low but climbed throughout the day, setting a new closing high for the third time in five trading days, driven by a significant increase in Apple's stock price. On the other hand, the auction of $39 billion in 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds on Tuesday showed decent demand, and the retreat of bond yields is also believed to have boosted market sentiment.
As of the close of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 120.62 points, or 0.31%, to 38,747.42; the Nasdaq Composite rose by 151.02 points, or 0.88%, to 17,343.55; and the S&P 500 increased by 14.53 points, or 0.27%, to 5,375.32.
Apple's stock regains Wall Street's favor
On the 11th, Apple's stock price surged by 7.26% to $207.15, with its market capitalization reaching a high of $3.18 trillion, just behind Microsoft's market cap of $3.22 trillion. Apple's 2024 Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC24) kicked off on the 10th (local time). During the keynote speech, Apple announced the next generation of operating systems for its major product lines.
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More importantly, Apple announced a collaboration with OpenAI, with ChatGPT to be integrated into the new generation of Apple's operating system, and Siri will support calling ChatGPT-4o, offering features such as generating images. Apple is also advancing the integration of large model products from other companies, a move that is expected to boost future sales of iPhones, iPads, and Mac computers. Due to declining iPhone sales and investor concerns that the company is lagging behind other major tech companies in the artificial intelligence technology race, Apple's gains so far this year still lag behind the S&P 500 index.
Several analysts subsequently raised their target prices for Apple. In a research report, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives stated that the AI features showcased by Apple at WWDC and the upcoming iPhone 16 will propel the company into a "supercycle," and he expects this series of innovations to significantly enhance Apple's market performance.
Ives said that Apple's introduction of AI to its developer community and its plans to launch an AI app store will drive future service growth. The collaboration with OpenAI, along with positive signs in the supply chain, indicate a very bright future for Apple in the field of AI.In terms of other individual stocks, General Motors closed up 1.35% after the company's board of directors authorized a new $6 billion share repurchase plan and increased the first-quarter common stock dividend by 33%, from $0.09 to $0.12.
Currently, the market's focus has shifted to the U.S. CPI data on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday. The market widely anticipates that the Fed will "stand pat," and the focal point of this meeting is the interest rate dot plot. The dot plot from March indicated that Federal Reserve officials predicted three rate cuts this year. With the recent slowdown in the pace of U.S. inflation decline, whether Fed officials will abandon the prediction of three rate cuts has become the focus of market attention. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference that day, and the signals he releases regarding the direction of the U.S. economy and monetary policy are also highly anticipated.
Due to the recent significant drop in oil prices, the market generally expects the May CPI to rise by 3.36% year-on-year, with a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.1% month-on-month, and the core CPI to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year decrease to a 3.5% increase, which may somewhat alleviate market concerns about inflation.
The U.S. non-farm employment data for May, released last Friday, significantly exceeded expectations, dampening investors' expectations for a Fed rate cut. As of June 11, data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed that the market's expectation for a rate cut in September has dropped to 50%.
Analysts have indicated that, considering the unclear long-term inflation outlook, the Fed is likely to lower its full-year rate cut guidance, aligning more with the market's expectation of two rate cuts. Furthermore, the probability of a rate cut in July by the Fed is already very low, and the market's focus may be more concentrated on the September interest rate meeting.
In the commodity market, oil prices continued their rebound trend, with WTI July crude oil futures rising by 16 cents to close at $77.90 per barrel, a gain of 0.21%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for June 2024 on Tuesday, raising the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2024 by 180,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day.
Regarding the global oil production outlook, the EIA believes that OPEC+ will essentially adhere to the production targets announced earlier this month. Although OPEC+ has extended the production cut agreement, the EIA stated, "It is expected that OPEC+'s crude oil production will follow these new targets until 2025."
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